The Attempted Venezuelan coup and what this could mean for Maduro and Guaidó

On the 4th May, 2 Americans and 11 Venezuelans were arrested just off the coast of Venezuela. What then proceeded was the discovery of a shambolic plan to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro.

 

The plan was simple enough. Two former US Green Berets (Luke Denman, 34 and Aidan Berry, 41) and a handful of Venezuelan dissidents would enter the country and travel up towards the capital Caracas liberating military installations as they went, encouraging members of the military to join them. On arrival in the city, Berry, Denman, and their band of merry men would arrest Maduro and ship him back to the US to face Narcoterrorism charges. The democratically elected president Juan Guaidó would take office and democracy would be restored to Venezuela. 

 

In theory. 

 

In reality, this was a far-flung attempt by a man called Jordan Goudreau, a former Green Beret and founder of SilverCorp USA, a private military contracting firm that offers everything from natural disaster mitigation to so-called special programs. There is a fair bit of controversy over who established the contract with Goudreau, whether it was his idea, or Cliver Alcala, a former Venezuelan General, or and more controversially, Juan Guaidó. This raises a fundamental issue with the plan. Goudreau and SilverCorp did not actually get paid prior to the event happening. Not a dime. According to Goudreau, there was a “significant verbal contract made, and vague mission parameters established for training Venezuelans and shipping Maduro back to the US”. This presents a whole load of issues. First off, why would SilverCorp accept a job on a verbal contract, something notoriously difficult to prove actually occurred. Secondly, why did they not ask or receive at least a portion of payment prior to launching the assault? It seems like they really fell at the first hurdle.


What does it mean for Guaido and Maduro? 


Well, this depends on who you are asking. For Nicolas Maduro, this can be classed as a political victory over his opposition. He has successfully prevented an illegal incursion into the domestic politics of Venezuela. He has stopped an illegal coup and prevented yet another American led intervention into South America if you see it like that. But most importantly, because this has traces of direct support by Juan Guaido it delegitimizes his claims to be the legitimate leader of Venezuela.

 

This brings me on to how this affects Guaido. Prior to this, he has almost universally been supported, with over 50 states supporting him as the legitimate interim leader. This was similarly reflected in the support he received from Venezuelan citizens following the election. However, following the Macuto Bay raid, his supporters have somewhat distanced themselves from him. The attempted coup has played havoc on Guaidós legitimacy due to a number of reasons. Firstly, the notion that a democratically elected official taking office via a coup is a touch ironic. Secondly, the slightest implication that he has been involved in has brought up questions as to actually how much better Guaido would be compared to Maduro. If, as SilverCorp USA has suggested, he did authorize the incursion and promise to supply SilverCorp with follow-on counternarcotic contracts after taking power, that would amount to a full-scale coup d’état, thus reducing any legitimacy he already had when he took office. It is a tough place for Guaido to be in, as I am sure he wished the coup succeeded without his international favor being soiled by accusations of wrongdoing.  

 

Will this affect the future of Venezuelan politics? 

 

Probably not. The incursion was so small and was halted too soon that there was no real-time for the movement to gain any traction, either politically or socially. If Venezuela wished to carry out any actions against the US, they would have already done so. It will be interesting to see how the supporting base of Juan Guaido changes as a result of this, but once again, I cannot see this making too much of a difference in the long term, given the nature of Venezuelan politics and how crazy it can be! 

 

 

 

 

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